Welcome to Acade
my Awards week and my annual Oscar prediction list.
There are those who study Hollywood, analyze voting patterns, and make these predictions as their profession, but that’s not me. Even so, I have a decent track record in my pool. Whether you use this list as a jumping off point for choosing a film to watch this weekend or as the crib sheet for your friend group/office Academy Awards choices, enjoy!
I’m traveling during this year’s broadcast so likely won’t have the opportunity to see Conan O’Brien host the show live. Booooooo. May those of you who watch enjoy the jokes and the fanfare on my behalf.
Here are the nominees. My predictions are in bold.
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
There are several fantastic choices this year. As I write this, the odds favor One Battle After Another over Sinners taking home the statuette, so it’s your safety pick. I’m going with Sinners as the underdog win. I almost didn’t see it because it was described to me as a horror movie. It’s that and more. I truly enjoyed the storytelling and its meaningful, layered worldview.
Directing
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Paul Thomas Anderson has been cleaning up on the awards circult (BAFTA, Directors Guild, Golden Globe) so I expect he’ll win here. Coogler would not be a shock, though.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Buckley is the heavy favorite. For anyone else to win would be a massive upset.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Chalamet has a lot of buzz and was the frontrunner early in the awards season, but I’m going Jordan. He played identical twins Smoke and Stack with such skill you felt as if you were watching two different actors portraying the characters’ unique emotions and perspectives.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz wins Best Supporting Actress for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, 2009
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
This category is tough. Madigan won the Actor (formerly the SAG), Mosaku won the BAFTA, and Taylor picked up the Golden Globe. The Actor and Oscar voting pools have the most overlap, so that would point to Madigan. Any of the three could take home the Oscar.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
The folks in the know (aka, entertainment writers) were all over the place between Penn, Lindo, and Skarsgård over the course of this awards season. The odds currently favor Penn and his creepy performance as the deranged-yet-comical Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another. I’m going to take a flyer, though, and choose Skarsgård.
Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Animated Feature
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
International Feature Film
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirāt (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
This one’s between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value, both of which are also in the Best Picture category.
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
This is one of the tight categories. I am not a car chase fan, but the car chase in One Battle After Another was mesmerizing, the kind that makes you catch your breath at the same time it moves the plot. However, there’s a musical sequence in Sinners that transforms the entire film, which is why Sinners is my pick. I’ve seen several entertainment writers go with Train Dreams, though, so if you loved that movie, this is the category where it’s most likely to win if you want to throw it a vote.
Film Editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
It’ll be interesting to see how Casting shakes out, given that it’s a new category. Sinners won the Actor from SAG-AFTRA for the ensemble, so it’s my pick.
Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied To You” from Sinners
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Documentary Short
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Live Action Short
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Next best bet: Two People Exchanging Saliva. Reviewers loved it and the title will catch voters’ attention. The Singers would be the outside pick.
Animated Short
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Oscar prognosticators are split between Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls, so choose your favorite.
Looking for a 2026 Printable Oscar Ballot?
Here are two options:
Vanity Fair: https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/oscars-ballot
ABC News: https://abc.com/show/0a6328a2-6451-46e7-a55a-fa84ddbb9541
The ABC News page has the full list of nominees, information on presenters, a link to play along in their Pick ‘Em game, and a printable ballot.
