Nicole Burnham
Nicole Burnham
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2024 Academy Award Predictions

Mar 6, 2024

Sharpen your pencils—assuming anyone does that anymore—and whip out the ballots for that Oscar pool you reluctantly agreed to enter. Use my yearly cheat sheet and no one will suspect you’re behind on current movies. You may even pull off the win.

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

While I adored American Fiction, this is the year of Oppenheimer.

Directing
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

If you look at the oddsmakers, this is a runaway.

Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Stone could be an upset here, but I suspect Gladstone will carry the day. If you feel like everyone in your pool is picking one of these two, consider going with the other. In a year with few toss-up categories, this could be a place to differentiate your ballot and win.

Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

If there were a category for Closest Thing to a Lock, this would be it.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Also: most likely acceptance speech to be shown in clips on the news the next morning.

Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

If you haven’t seen American Fiction, do it. I saw this in the theater and everyone was grinning at the end.

Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Academy loves Spider-Man, but The Boy and the Heron could pull off the win here.

Documentary Feature
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Last year, Navalny won this category. I think Mariupol will take it this year.

International Feature Film
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

As fun and nostalgic as Margot Robbie’s Barbie costumes were, my heart went to Kate McKinnon’s Weird Barbie. We all knew that Barbie.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

One of the toughest picks of the night. It’s a coin flip between Maestro and Poor Things.

Original Score
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Original Song
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“Wahzhazhe” from Killers of the Flower Moon

Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

This is a race between Barbie and Poor Things. I’m going with Poor Things.

Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla: Minus One
Gurardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

The short categories are where you’ll win your pool.

Live Action Short
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

The After and Red, White and Blue are the frontrunners. I’m going with Red, White and Blue.

Animated Short
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko Ono

Looking for a 2024 Printable Oscar Ballot? Here are two options:

Rotten Tomatoes

Vanity Fair

Good luck!

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