Here it is, my yearly just-for-fun Oscar prediction list. Whether you use this to discover what films and performances are nominated this year or for hints on picking winners for your friend/office pool, enjoy!
Be aware as you’re filling out your own ballot that I’m making these picks a week earlier than usual. I’m traveling over Oscar weekend, so this will be the first year in a long time I won’t be watching the ceremony from the treadmill. You’re more than welcome to find a treadmill and jog in my stead if your heart and legs desire.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
The Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Anora leads the odds ever-so-slightly over The Brutalist and it’s the Variety pick, but I’m ticking the box beside The Brutalist based on its Golden Globe win. If you want a dark horse pick here, consider the BAFTA winner, Conclave.
Directing
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
If you look at the oddsmakers, this is a runaway, but I think Brady Corbet also has a good shot.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Mikey Madison picked up the BAFTA, but Demi remains the favorite.
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Brody and Chalamet are far and away the top picks in this category. Brody leads with the oddsmakers and has won most of the awards this season, but as I write this, Chalamet has a lot of buzz. I’m making this pick ahead of the SAG Awards, so if Chalamet wins the SAG, you could be smart picking him for the Oscar.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
This category is interesting. Saldaña picked up all the early awards, but the buzz for Grande is growing. I’m going with Saldaña, but as with Actor in a Leading Role, keep an eye on the SAG Awards before making your choice. It could swing the pendulum to Grande. As a side note: I am a huge Isabella Rossellini fan, so I was thrilled to see her nomination.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
As I write this, Anora is the betting favorite. Even so, while Coralie Fargeat may miss out on the golden statuette for Best Directing, there’s a chance she could pick it up here for her work on The Substance. Keep your eyes on the odds as the ceremony draws closer.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
International Feature Film
Emilia Pérez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
This one’s a toss-up between Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here. I’m going with I’m Still Here.
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
Variety has a good track record with predictions and is picking Nosferatu. It’s been moving up with the oddsmakers, but I’m going with the current Vegas top pick: The Brutalist.
Film Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
This is neck-and-neck between Anora and The Brutalist. Pick what speaks to you.
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
The Substance and Wicked are the two favorites. Makeup and hairstyling had a big impact on the storytelling in The Substance, so it’s my pick.
Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
This is a toss-up between The Brutalist and Conclave.
Original Song
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Depending on who’s making the prediction, this could be A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, or Wicked. After seeing Dune: Part Two in the theater, it’s my choice.
Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Documentary Short
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
The short categories are where you’ll win your pool. I’m Ready, Warden is the odds-on favorite.
Live Action Short
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
A Lien
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
The odds here favor The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent with Anuja close behind. I’m picking Anuja.
Animated Short
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck
Looking for a 2025 Printable Oscar Ballot? Here are two options:
Vanity Fair: https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/oscars-ballot
ABC News: https://abc.com/news/2e100609-67b5-4a02-bcb3-f1b2ed134da0/category/3590739
The ABC News page has both a full list of nominees, a link to play along in their Pick ‘Em game, and a printable ballot.
Good luck!
