Here we go again! Each year I post my predictions for the Academy Awards. I have a far better track record here than predicting who’ll win any given sports tourney. If your office or friend group does an Oscar pool and you want to participate, but don’t have a clue what to pick in each category, here’s your annual cheat sheet.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Oscar night can be full of surprises, but I’d be stunned to hear any other film named when the final envelope is opened. (Though if you haven’t seen Banshees, grab your popcorn and settle in for a morbid laugh. I loved it.)
The Hollywood sign at night
Directing
The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg
Tár, Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund
Given the strength of the film and the bellwether that is the Directors Guild Award, go with the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Go Yeoh.
Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
This one’s tough. Austin Butler picked up the Golden Globe for Drama and Colin Farrell nabbed it for Musical or Comedy. Brendan Fraser won the SAG Award. Hollywood loves to reward the challenge of playing a real person and doing it well, which Butler did as Elvis. Hollywood also loves a comeback story, which Fraser has in spades. I’m going with Fraser.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
This could go to Bassett, Condon, or Curtis and it wouldn’t be a shock. I’m picking Curtis based on momentum. As a side note: If you’ve never seen Angela Bassett in What’s Love Got to Do with It, queue it up for the next time you find yourself hunting for a good movie. You won’t regret it.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Again, Hollywood loves comebacks and reinventions. Go with Ke Huy Quan. He’s been the darling of the awards season. That being said, when the credits rolled after Banshees, I told my husband I had the same feeling watching Barry Keoghan’s performance as I did when I first saw Edward Norton onscreen. That performance in Primal Fear earned Norton an Oscar nod and launched an amazing career. Look for Keoghan again.
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tàr
Triangle of Sadness
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
I usually have firm picks in the two screenplay categories, but this year both are real races. Original could be The Banshees of Inisherin or Everything Everywhere All at Once. I’m giving it to Banshees simply because I want to, but Vegas says to go with Everything Everywhere. For Adapted Screenplay, I admit to waffling between All Quiet on the Western Front and Women Talking. I’ve put my checkmark beside Women Talking.
Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
The Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Fire of Love and Navalny are in a tight race. Given the timeliness of the subject, go with Navalny.
International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
I think this is finally the year a woman wins Cinematography, so I’m picking Elvis. That being said, All Quiet on the Western Front won the BAFTA and is the odds-on favorite. Be aware of that if you go with my pick.
Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvish
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tàr
Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
I so want to pick Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, but Elvis is a Baz Luhrmann film, which by definition screams great costume design. It’s the favorite in this category.
Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Again, Elvis is in contention here. Baz Luhrmann movies are a visual treat and hairstyling and makeup carry a lot of that load. This could go either way, but I’m picking The Whale.
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
This is a race between All Quiet on the Western Front, which won the BAFTA, and Babylon, which picked up the Golden Globe. Given the overall number of nominations it has received, I’m picking All Quiet on the Western Front to win here.
Rihanna on the red carpet
Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is the only true any-nominee-could-win category of the night. I’m picking the song that had the biggest effect on its film.
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Vegas says Top Gun: Maverick. I’m picking the upset.
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
This could go to either Elvis or Babylon. I’m betting fewer Academy voters have seen Babylon and going with Elvis.
Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Documentary (Short Subject)
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Short Film (Live Action)
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
The Oscar Statuette
Short Film (Animated)
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
The short categories are where you win your office pool. My picks here are usually solid.
Looking for a 2023 Printable Oscar Ballot? Here are some options:
ABC News – Look for the “download and print out your own 2023 Oscars ballot” link in the first paragraph. You can also play their Oscars Pick ‘Em game.
Good luck!
